Ukraine, Iran & America’s Strategy Problem | Eyes On Geopolitics

We break down the delayed Patriot sale to Ukraine, Washington’s increasingly contradictory Russia policy, and what that dysfunction looks like to U.S. allies and partners. We also examine the possible paths forward with Iran, including renewed strikes, economic pressure, negotiations, the risks of retaliation, and why no option offers an easy route to victory.
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00:00 – Start
00:37 – Patriot Missiles for Ukraine… in 2030?
01:30 – Why the Announcement Does Nothing for Ukraine This Winter
03:02 – Is the Patriot Deal Really About U.S. Domestic Politics?
04:07 – Europe, Canada & Norway Help Fund the Sale
05:00 – Russia Escalates Attacks on Ukraine’s Energy Infrastructure
05:30 – U.S. Diesel Deals With Russia & Sanctions Waivers
06:27 – Washington Pressures Ukraine to Stop Striking Russian Oil
07:00 – Starlink & Starshield Disruptions
08:27 – Is U.S. Policy Quietly Shifting Toward Russia?
09:00 – CIA Targeting Support vs. White House Policy
10:09 – Why the National Security Process Is Breaking Down
12:04 – America’s Grand Strategy Problem
12:35 – The National Security Council Isn’t Working
14:09 – What U.S. Policy Confusion Looks Like to Our Allies
15:00 – How Ukrainian Troops View Washington
16:19 – Why Britain Is Seen Differently in Ukraine
17:00 – The Importance of Consistent Support to Allies
18:00 – What Saudi Arabia Is Seeing From the U.S.
19:05 – America’s Relationship With Arab Partners
20:19 – Marc’s Story About the Kurds & U.S. Betrayal
21:34 – Turning Our Back on the SDF
22:21 – Why Allies Compare Their Support to Israel’s
23:33 – Is This Specifically a Trump Administration Problem?
24:38 – Iran War Depletes U.S. Air Defense Stockpiles
24:47 – Shifting to Iran
25:53 – Five Possible U.S. Courses of Action Against Iran
27:31 – Are U.S.-Iran Negotiations Actually Different This Time?
28:39 – Economic Pressure vs. Renewed Military Action
29:25 – The Escalation Ladder With Iran
30:16 – The Missing Question: What Is the Objective?
32:07 – Why Escalation Without an End State Is Dangerous
33:26 – The NSC’s Binary Approach to Iran
34:07 – Option 1: Make a Deal
34:30 – Option 2: Continue Economic Warfare
35:00 – Option 3: Limited Strikes Around Hormuz
35:30 – Option 4: Major Strikes on Iran
36:01 – Can Another Air Campaign Actually Change Iran’s Position?
36:30 – Option 5: Strikes Aimed at Regime Collapse
37:40 – Predictions: What Happens After the Midterms?
38:04 – Jonathan Predicts Broader Infrastructure Strikes
38:56 – Andy Predicts a Short, Sharp Campaign
39:36 – Could Election Results Push Trump Toward Escalation?
41:30 – Is a Deal With Iran Still Possible?
41:59 – What Would Jim Mattis Tell Trump?
42:20 – Iranian Retaliation & Risks to U.S. Forces
42:57 – What Has the War Actually Achieved?
44:00 – The Doomsday Prepping Panic
45:13 – Costco Runs, Generators & Cyberattack Fears
46:11 – Why Dee Didn’t Prep
46:46 – Why Oil Is Still So Expensive
47:03 – Risk Premiums, Insurance & Shipping Through Hormuz
48:55 – Why Brent Crude Doesn’t Reflect Today’s Conditions
50:01 – What’s Going on in Poland?
50:09 – Poland’s Political Crisis Explained
51:33 – Midterm Election Predictions
52:09 – What Would Dee Buy for Doomsday Prepping?

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